It appears the US and NATO have no appetite for war and neither does anyone else in the region. So far there have been sanctions but that’s it. Sanctions are not going to be effective. Below are reasons why I think Russia will defeat Ukraine even
1: Airforce
The Russian Airforce is 190,000 strong with over 4,000 aircraft. Some of these jets are on the bleeding edge of technology. They have drones, laser-guided missiles, complex stealth aircraft, and just about everything the US and NATO has.
Ukraine by comparison has 36,000 Airforce personnel and 225 aircraft. Now the Ukrainian Airforce is decently advanced boasting a large number of modern multi-role aircraft. That said the Ukrainian Airforce is just about as advanced (if not less advanced) than the Russian Airforce which outnumbers it at 20 to 1.
2: Ground forces
The Russian “Army” is considered to be the 2nd strongest on earth behind the US. From tanks to APCs the Russian Army has technologically advanced weaponry on par with the US- and they have a lot of them. In total the Russian Amry is about 300,000 strong with hundreds of thousands of reserve personnel ready to be called up.
Ukraine’s Amry by comparison is lagging behind. While it’s not horribly outnumbered (being about 170,000 strong) it is technologically outclassed. Much of Ukraine's weaponry dates back to the cold war era and their weapons won’t fare well against modern Russian Battle Tanks.
3: Economy
The Russian GDP is 1.4 trillion which is 10 times larger than Ukraine's GDP of 155 billion. Economically Russia is significantly more advanced and thus can fund a war effort longer than Ukraine can.
4: Geography
In war you want to minimize the amount of border your need to protect. If you leave part of your border unguarded, your enemy can move into your territory without resistance and flank around your other forces.
If you have a big border to defend you have to stretch your forces out to do so. It makes it hard to leave large numbers of men in reserve for possible counter-attacks.
Ukraine is surrounded. Russia is invading from the North, East, and South meaning Ukraine has to defend practically its entire border.
Additionally, Ukraine is not easy to defend. It’s mostly flat with 1 major body of water in the center of the country. Since Russia is invading from the North there are no natural barriers the Ukrainians can fortify to defend- at least nothing significant.
5: Diplomacy
Russia has invaded the world response has been….. nothing.
It appears the US and NATO have no appetite for war and neither does anyone else in the region. So far there have been sanctions but that’s it. Sanctions are not going to be effective.
Putin knows that Europe relies on Russian energy resources, especially right now. He knows the sanctions will not last just like the many sanctions of the past.
Nobody is coming to help Ukraine and so they are on their own against the 2nd strongest army on earth.
So it seems rather grim for Ukraine huh? Well not so much.
As of now, Ukraine is putting up a decent fight. They have numerical superiority through their air defenses are being whittled away by Russian airstrikes and Russia will soon have total air dominance.
That said have you ever heard of Chechnya? It’s not very big. In fact, it’s about the size of a US State. Russia fought for decades against Chechnyran separatists and Jihadists and it was brutal. The Russians were notoriously cruel as were the Chechnyans.
At one point Russia literally invaded the region with the full weight of their military and even that failed. While most of Chechnya was eventually pacified after decades of brutal warfare, there remains an insurgency there to this day.
Chechnya is far smaller than Ukraine- both in terms of raw size and population.
We can also look to the invasion of Afghanistan as an example of what could come, but I think it’s a poor example given the cold war context.
Regardless, even if Russia conquers Ukraine and establishes a puppet government the war still isn’t over. Lots of Ukrainians (and Russians) will oppose this puppet government and occupation.
Similar to Chechnya, anti-Russian rebels and insurgents could violently and effectively resist Russian occupation for years or decades to come. With a bit of covert US support, Russia may eventually be unable to afford this occupation and be forced to pull back.
It’s going to cost Russia a lot of manpower, money, time, and political capital to make this work. The world will not just accept this openly and neither will Ukraine. Putin is going to have to work overtime to lift the sanctions, maintain his economy, and keep control of a very large and rebellious puppet nation.
I could very easily see this war and occupation becoming too much for Russia to bear- resulting in a Ukrainian victory and perhaps ending any chances for Russian domination in the region.
If Ukraine can win this war or eventually push out the Russians it would be a serious blow to Putin and the Russian military. NATO knows this and will try to covertly make it happen but Putin knows this too and will fight tooth and nail to maintain his hold over Ukraine.
Either way this conflict will be interesting and very sad to watch.
1: Airforce
 |
| Russia Airforce |
Ukraine by comparison has 36,000 Airforce personnel and 225 aircraft. Now the Ukrainian Airforce is decently advanced boasting a large number of modern multi-role aircraft. That said the Ukrainian Airforce is just about as advanced (if not less advanced) than the Russian Airforce which outnumbers it at 20 to 1.
2: Ground forces
 |
| Russia's Ground forces |
Ukraine’s Amry by comparison is lagging behind. While it’s not horribly outnumbered (being about 170,000 strong) it is technologically outclassed. Much of Ukraine's weaponry dates back to the cold war era and their weapons won’t fare well against modern Russian Battle Tanks.
3: Economy
The Russian GDP is 1.4 trillion which is 10 times larger than Ukraine's GDP of 155 billion. Economically Russia is significantly more advanced and thus can fund a war effort longer than Ukraine can.
4: Geography
If you have a big border to defend you have to stretch your forces out to do so. It makes it hard to leave large numbers of men in reserve for possible counter-attacks.
Additionally, Ukraine is not easy to defend. It’s mostly flat with 1 major body of water in the center of the country. Since Russia is invading from the North there are no natural barriers the Ukrainians can fortify to defend- at least nothing significant.
5: Diplomacy
Russia has invaded the world response has been….. nothing.
It appears the US and NATO have no appetite for war and neither does anyone else in the region. So far there have been sanctions but that’s it. Sanctions are not going to be effective.
Putin knows that Europe relies on Russian energy resources, especially right now. He knows the sanctions will not last just like the many sanctions of the past.
Nobody is coming to help Ukraine and so they are on their own against the 2nd strongest army on earth.
So it seems rather grim for Ukraine huh? Well not so much.
As of now, Ukraine is putting up a decent fight. They have numerical superiority through their air defenses are being whittled away by Russian airstrikes and Russia will soon have total air dominance.
That said have you ever heard of Chechnya? It’s not very big. In fact, it’s about the size of a US State. Russia fought for decades against Chechnyran separatists and Jihadists and it was brutal. The Russians were notoriously cruel as were the Chechnyans.
Chechnya is far smaller than Ukraine- both in terms of raw size and population.
We can also look to the invasion of Afghanistan as an example of what could come, but I think it’s a poor example given the cold war context.
Regardless, even if Russia conquers Ukraine and establishes a puppet government the war still isn’t over. Lots of Ukrainians (and Russians) will oppose this puppet government and occupation.
Similar to Chechnya, anti-Russian rebels and insurgents could violently and effectively resist Russian occupation for years or decades to come. With a bit of covert US support, Russia may eventually be unable to afford this occupation and be forced to pull back.
It’s going to cost Russia a lot of manpower, money, time, and political capital to make this work. The world will not just accept this openly and neither will Ukraine. Putin is going to have to work overtime to lift the sanctions, maintain his economy, and keep control of a very large and rebellious puppet nation.
I could very easily see this war and occupation becoming too much for Russia to bear- resulting in a Ukrainian victory and perhaps ending any chances for Russian domination in the region.
If Ukraine can win this war or eventually push out the Russians it would be a serious blow to Putin and the Russian military. NATO knows this and will try to covertly make it happen but Putin knows this too and will fight tooth and nail to maintain his hold over Ukraine.
Either way this conflict will be interesting and very sad to watch.
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